Tuesday, June 29, 2004
The Morning After
Baghdad is free! I repeat: Baghdad is free!! OK, so cheesy dialogue aside, starting with today's sunrise, we have a new Iraqi government in place and the much-derided and vilified CPA has ridden off into yesterday's sunset. In the case of TeamBush frontman L. Paul Bremer, he exited far before the sun dipped in the desert sky, hopping a plane literally minutes after handing the keys over to the new PM Iyad Allawi.
In what is a rare bit of praise for the Bushies in this blog, I think the decision to hand over power prior to the 30th of June had some real merit. Even though, it does appear that the decision came out of the 'how-will-it-play-in-Arlen' political playbook of Karl Rove as much as in anticipation of facts on the ground. Nevertheless, it took lots of folks by surprise, including Iraqi militants, and will hopefully help to diffuse the much-expected onslaught of violence that was assumed to be planned for the 30th. Of course, if tomorrow ends up looking like Day One of the Tet Offensive anyway, it won't seem like much of a coup.
My favorite part of the festivities (curiously well-timed so that Bush could make the announcement of the early transfer during the NATO summit in Turkey) was the photo of the personal note Condi jotted to her husband (er, boss)acknowledging the transfer that was immediately made available to the worldwide media. Bush, gushing with that 'mission accomplished' pride no doubt not felt since a certain aircraft carrier PR stunt last year, wrote "Let freedom reign!" in reply. My Gen X response is : "Yeah, sure seemed pretty spontaneous!"
One can only hope that the Iraqi people will change their minds about this new government and at least give them a chance. Much of that will likely be based on its willingness to overturn what many see as egregious overstepping of authority by the CPA in several key areas. The easiest area where they can bite the hands of their former masters without threatening the safety of their country is economic policy.
As has been discussed here before, Bremer's CPA had as a core value of its mission the revisioning of Iraq as a 'free-market' mecca. All of the ideas long touted by arch conservatives were written into Iraq's governance: Privatization of all industries, a flat tax system, generous contracts awarded to large multinationals, etc. This economic shock therapy not only has no precedent in the Middle East, but runs counter to Geneva Convention agreements which stipulate that the occupier of a nation may not make radical and permanent changes to its existing legal and economic system. Not only that, but this effort has largely failed, enriching a few large foreign corporations while leaving many Iraqis embittered, unemployed, and without needed services like clean water and barely reliable electricity.
Thus, the new government can earn much needed points with the locals by disavowing of few of these left over CPA edicts in a very public way.
Another positive: Iraq has always had a large middle class of educated folks. It is clear that fundamentalist extremists of all stripes of been terrorizing the educated intelligentsia and liberated females throughout the country with beatings and assassinations designed to put them in their place. If Iraq is to succeed (something most militant groups are opposed to) the country must cultivate the knowledge and thoughtfulness of these people. So it is incumbent upon the Iraqi government to stop the wave of violence gripping the country.
Indeed it's a hold your breath moment about Iraq right now. Americans in a recent poll have shown both realism and optimism:
"By a 2-1 margin, Americans say the turnover of political control to Iraqis now is not a sign of success, but a sign of failure because the nation's stability remains in question, according to a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll. Still, three-fourths in the poll approved of the U.S. handover of authority to Iraqis.
The Gallup poll found that despite their doubts, a majority, 54 percent, had hopes the transfer of authority to the Iraqis could improve the situation in that country."
Few polls have invested significant time asking us what we perceive the expectations of the handover to be. No doubt our view of the turnover will be affected greatly by the number of Americans killed and injured in attacks now that power has been given to the Iraqis.
Baghdad is free! I repeat: Baghdad is free!! OK, so cheesy dialogue aside, starting with today's sunrise, we have a new Iraqi government in place and the much-derided and vilified CPA has ridden off into yesterday's sunset. In the case of TeamBush frontman L. Paul Bremer, he exited far before the sun dipped in the desert sky, hopping a plane literally minutes after handing the keys over to the new PM Iyad Allawi.
In what is a rare bit of praise for the Bushies in this blog, I think the decision to hand over power prior to the 30th of June had some real merit. Even though, it does appear that the decision came out of the 'how-will-it-play-in-Arlen' political playbook of Karl Rove as much as in anticipation of facts on the ground. Nevertheless, it took lots of folks by surprise, including Iraqi militants, and will hopefully help to diffuse the much-expected onslaught of violence that was assumed to be planned for the 30th. Of course, if tomorrow ends up looking like Day One of the Tet Offensive anyway, it won't seem like much of a coup.
My favorite part of the festivities (curiously well-timed so that Bush could make the announcement of the early transfer during the NATO summit in Turkey) was the photo of the personal note Condi jotted to her husband (er, boss)acknowledging the transfer that was immediately made available to the worldwide media. Bush, gushing with that 'mission accomplished' pride no doubt not felt since a certain aircraft carrier PR stunt last year, wrote "Let freedom reign!" in reply. My Gen X response is : "Yeah, sure seemed pretty spontaneous!"
One can only hope that the Iraqi people will change their minds about this new government and at least give them a chance. Much of that will likely be based on its willingness to overturn what many see as egregious overstepping of authority by the CPA in several key areas. The easiest area where they can bite the hands of their former masters without threatening the safety of their country is economic policy.
As has been discussed here before, Bremer's CPA had as a core value of its mission the revisioning of Iraq as a 'free-market' mecca. All of the ideas long touted by arch conservatives were written into Iraq's governance: Privatization of all industries, a flat tax system, generous contracts awarded to large multinationals, etc. This economic shock therapy not only has no precedent in the Middle East, but runs counter to Geneva Convention agreements which stipulate that the occupier of a nation may not make radical and permanent changes to its existing legal and economic system. Not only that, but this effort has largely failed, enriching a few large foreign corporations while leaving many Iraqis embittered, unemployed, and without needed services like clean water and barely reliable electricity.
Thus, the new government can earn much needed points with the locals by disavowing of few of these left over CPA edicts in a very public way.
Another positive: Iraq has always had a large middle class of educated folks. It is clear that fundamentalist extremists of all stripes of been terrorizing the educated intelligentsia and liberated females throughout the country with beatings and assassinations designed to put them in their place. If Iraq is to succeed (something most militant groups are opposed to) the country must cultivate the knowledge and thoughtfulness of these people. So it is incumbent upon the Iraqi government to stop the wave of violence gripping the country.
Indeed it's a hold your breath moment about Iraq right now. Americans in a recent poll have shown both realism and optimism:
"By a 2-1 margin, Americans say the turnover of political control to Iraqis now is not a sign of success, but a sign of failure because the nation's stability remains in question, according to a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll. Still, three-fourths in the poll approved of the U.S. handover of authority to Iraqis.
The Gallup poll found that despite their doubts, a majority, 54 percent, had hopes the transfer of authority to the Iraqis could improve the situation in that country."
Few polls have invested significant time asking us what we perceive the expectations of the handover to be. No doubt our view of the turnover will be affected greatly by the number of Americans killed and injured in attacks now that power has been given to the Iraqis.
Comments:
Post a Comment
