Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Hatin' and Waitin'
This has become a really fun and quite unique primary election season. And while the black v. woman candidate situation on the Dem side is indeed historic and interesting, for my money what's going on over in GOP-land is the real action.
The GOP supposedly had this primary thing down. Unlike the messy Dems, whose proportional divsion of delegates is based on percentage of vote garnered in each state, the GOPs winner-take-all primary strategy is designed to have an early front runner coalesce quickly to secure the party's nomination. Usually that person is an agreed-upon Washington outsider (e.g. Reagan and W. Bush) or a longtime party stalwart who has earned the spot (e.g. H.W. Bush or Bob Dole). But consensus, among the GOP establishment, is key. With the GOP base now split between 'establishment conservatives' voting for Romney and 'movement, or social, conservatives' largely backing Huckabee, John McCain, he of the floundering, moneyless campaign just last June, is now practically guaranteed the party's top spot. Not since Barry Goldwater captured the 1964 nomination, and got crushed by LBJ, has a GOPer with less institutional support been anywhere near as successful.
This came amidst much in-fighting and wringing of hands for the otherwise-disciplined Repos. Rightwing talk radio's rabid slash-and-burn against McCain, the goal of which was to convince GOP primary voters to pick Romney over Huckabee, failed wildly (Rush reportedly asked his listeners to vote Clinton over McCain if it came down to it--note: he choked on his piggy little tongue shortly thereafter and was only saved by a big dose of Mexican bootleg Oxy). Mitt bailed last week, although in the manner of 'slick willie politics' that gave many folks a real distatse for him anyway, he merely suspended his campaign rather than withdraw. That allows him to keep his delegates going into the convention and may make him something of a king-maker come August.
My only (mischievous) wish was that McCain would've taken the stage at the rightwing CPAC convention before Romney, where he announced his 'campaign suspension.' But of course the party insiders still had control over that. Had he done so the boos and guffaws for the GOPs putative candidate would've made for excellent YouTube viewing. As it was the stunned convention of conservative faithful had to bite their tongues, supress their anger and bile, and acknowledge their most-hated candidate as the likely standard bearer of the party.
Huckabee remains in the race and snagged a few post Uber-Tuesday wins in states with a large fundie voting blocs. They are, of course, pretty much the only folks who vote for him, but in GOP primaries especially, they're a force to be reckoned with. Here's what I think we should all be looking for come the next few weeks:
GOP
Rallying around McCain The Christian conservatives just weren't ever going to vote for an archangel Moroni-believing, heretic LDSer like Romney. Will they do so for McCain, who has just received the support of super-fundie Gary Bauer? Can they get past his opposition to outlawing Roe v. Wade and an anti gay marriage Constitional Amendment? Look for more fundie endorsements as movement conservatives who have drank the Kool-Aid of DC-based power show a real reluctance to give it up, self-righteous principled stands be damned.
Huckabee What's Mike in it for? If he continues to embarass McCain by winning conservative voters in upcoming primaries, the GOP establishment won't look favorably upon that for future consideration (clearly Romney was banking on such future options when he bailed). But he's pretty much established himself as the new-generation torch-bearer for the religious right. If that's his main political goal then he won't care, much as Goldwater didn't end his quixotic campaign of '64. In the end he dragged the party way to the right for the next 40 years. Hardly a bad strategy if that's his goal.
Dems
Clinton Its almost tied in terms of delegates, but given the strength and staying power that Obama has shown since Iowa, even with a few slips, she has to be worried. There's reported infighting about strategy in her camp, and a few more less-than-stellar showings could portend serious problems for the woman about whom it was once assumed would casually waltz to the nomination.
Funding Obama has an advantage here in that he not only has momentum (crucial for brining in the bucks) but also alot more cash to be potentially received. Most of Clinton's donations came from bigwigs, a large number of whom have reached their donation caps and can't give anymore. Obama has alot of small contributions in his war chest, and could still get alot more money from heavy hitters if Clinton continues to show signs of fatigue.
Obama There's some talk that his message, while reassuring or inspiring in a MLK-style, is pretty much played out. While it has no doubt woo'ed moderates and lulled some GOPers into a 'this-guy-ain't-that-bad' slumber, there's a concern that he's just not as good as Hillary on substance and policy. I agree. But as a guy who's fluent in wonk speak I must say that in the end policy, except as broadly outlined and generally perceived, doesn't seem to sway voters much. Can you say Dukakis? Gore? Sure, Clinton was an acknowledged wonk but also a master pol and speaker. Still, its further been said that a novel, big-ticket initiative that's passionately articulated could be enough to put Obama over the top. I agree with that, too.
Electability Woman or black guy? Its a perception game, but one that Obama seems to have been winning. He comes off like a candidate who 'happens to be black' rather than a 'black candidiate' ala Jackson or Sharpton (fyi Alan Keyes is still in the GOP race--ah to have a rematch of the Senate race that took Obama to Washington in the first place! Too bad he's polling at less than zero). Hillary is dogged by her Clinton-ness. The GOP, especially the rabid, red-meat dittohead constituency, hates her. She definitely will inspire a greater GOP turnout in November than Obama. This was made even worse by Bill Clinton's outbursts after South Carolina. Even though he's muzzled now he reminded Dem voters of the liability yet another first family approach to the presidency could bring. Generic polls continue to show that Obama could beat McCain but Clinton would have a harder time. Again, this is months-out and mostly perception at play, but it's important. The Dems dearly want the White House (and Christ, after eight years of TeamBush it would seem they deserve it); they would be willing to jettison either candidate of it looked like they didn't much up well against the GOP contender (now clearly McCain).
Superdelegates This is what's wrong with the Democratic Party. They allow all of this tussle in the primaries and then have some 900-plus uncommitted delegates that can go to the convention and essentially sway it anyway they want should the count be close--which is likely this go 'round. Since these folks are made up of elected Democrats, party insiders, and bigwigs this would seem to favor Hillary. But again, they'd willingly toss her under the campaign bus if it seemed the smart money come November was on Barack Obama.
This has become a really fun and quite unique primary election season. And while the black v. woman candidate situation on the Dem side is indeed historic and interesting, for my money what's going on over in GOP-land is the real action.
The GOP supposedly had this primary thing down. Unlike the messy Dems, whose proportional divsion of delegates is based on percentage of vote garnered in each state, the GOPs winner-take-all primary strategy is designed to have an early front runner coalesce quickly to secure the party's nomination. Usually that person is an agreed-upon Washington outsider (e.g. Reagan and W. Bush) or a longtime party stalwart who has earned the spot (e.g. H.W. Bush or Bob Dole). But consensus, among the GOP establishment, is key. With the GOP base now split between 'establishment conservatives' voting for Romney and 'movement, or social, conservatives' largely backing Huckabee, John McCain, he of the floundering, moneyless campaign just last June, is now practically guaranteed the party's top spot. Not since Barry Goldwater captured the 1964 nomination, and got crushed by LBJ, has a GOPer with less institutional support been anywhere near as successful.
This came amidst much in-fighting and wringing of hands for the otherwise-disciplined Repos. Rightwing talk radio's rabid slash-and-burn against McCain, the goal of which was to convince GOP primary voters to pick Romney over Huckabee, failed wildly (Rush reportedly asked his listeners to vote Clinton over McCain if it came down to it--note: he choked on his piggy little tongue shortly thereafter and was only saved by a big dose of Mexican bootleg Oxy). Mitt bailed last week, although in the manner of 'slick willie politics' that gave many folks a real distatse for him anyway, he merely suspended his campaign rather than withdraw. That allows him to keep his delegates going into the convention and may make him something of a king-maker come August.
My only (mischievous) wish was that McCain would've taken the stage at the rightwing CPAC convention before Romney, where he announced his 'campaign suspension.' But of course the party insiders still had control over that. Had he done so the boos and guffaws for the GOPs putative candidate would've made for excellent YouTube viewing. As it was the stunned convention of conservative faithful had to bite their tongues, supress their anger and bile, and acknowledge their most-hated candidate as the likely standard bearer of the party.
Huckabee remains in the race and snagged a few post Uber-Tuesday wins in states with a large fundie voting blocs. They are, of course, pretty much the only folks who vote for him, but in GOP primaries especially, they're a force to be reckoned with. Here's what I think we should all be looking for come the next few weeks:
GOP
Rallying around McCain The Christian conservatives just weren't ever going to vote for an archangel Moroni-believing, heretic LDSer like Romney. Will they do so for McCain, who has just received the support of super-fundie Gary Bauer? Can they get past his opposition to outlawing Roe v. Wade and an anti gay marriage Constitional Amendment? Look for more fundie endorsements as movement conservatives who have drank the Kool-Aid of DC-based power show a real reluctance to give it up, self-righteous principled stands be damned.
Huckabee What's Mike in it for? If he continues to embarass McCain by winning conservative voters in upcoming primaries, the GOP establishment won't look favorably upon that for future consideration (clearly Romney was banking on such future options when he bailed). But he's pretty much established himself as the new-generation torch-bearer for the religious right. If that's his main political goal then he won't care, much as Goldwater didn't end his quixotic campaign of '64. In the end he dragged the party way to the right for the next 40 years. Hardly a bad strategy if that's his goal.
Dems
Clinton Its almost tied in terms of delegates, but given the strength and staying power that Obama has shown since Iowa, even with a few slips, she has to be worried. There's reported infighting about strategy in her camp, and a few more less-than-stellar showings could portend serious problems for the woman about whom it was once assumed would casually waltz to the nomination.
Funding Obama has an advantage here in that he not only has momentum (crucial for brining in the bucks) but also alot more cash to be potentially received. Most of Clinton's donations came from bigwigs, a large number of whom have reached their donation caps and can't give anymore. Obama has alot of small contributions in his war chest, and could still get alot more money from heavy hitters if Clinton continues to show signs of fatigue.
Obama There's some talk that his message, while reassuring or inspiring in a MLK-style, is pretty much played out. While it has no doubt woo'ed moderates and lulled some GOPers into a 'this-guy-ain't-that-bad' slumber, there's a concern that he's just not as good as Hillary on substance and policy. I agree. But as a guy who's fluent in wonk speak I must say that in the end policy, except as broadly outlined and generally perceived, doesn't seem to sway voters much. Can you say Dukakis? Gore? Sure, Clinton was an acknowledged wonk but also a master pol and speaker. Still, its further been said that a novel, big-ticket initiative that's passionately articulated could be enough to put Obama over the top. I agree with that, too.
Electability Woman or black guy? Its a perception game, but one that Obama seems to have been winning. He comes off like a candidate who 'happens to be black' rather than a 'black candidiate' ala Jackson or Sharpton (fyi Alan Keyes is still in the GOP race--ah to have a rematch of the Senate race that took Obama to Washington in the first place! Too bad he's polling at less than zero). Hillary is dogged by her Clinton-ness. The GOP, especially the rabid, red-meat dittohead constituency, hates her. She definitely will inspire a greater GOP turnout in November than Obama. This was made even worse by Bill Clinton's outbursts after South Carolina. Even though he's muzzled now he reminded Dem voters of the liability yet another first family approach to the presidency could bring. Generic polls continue to show that Obama could beat McCain but Clinton would have a harder time. Again, this is months-out and mostly perception at play, but it's important. The Dems dearly want the White House (and Christ, after eight years of TeamBush it would seem they deserve it); they would be willing to jettison either candidate of it looked like they didn't much up well against the GOP contender (now clearly McCain).
Superdelegates This is what's wrong with the Democratic Party. They allow all of this tussle in the primaries and then have some 900-plus uncommitted delegates that can go to the convention and essentially sway it anyway they want should the count be close--which is likely this go 'round. Since these folks are made up of elected Democrats, party insiders, and bigwigs this would seem to favor Hillary. But again, they'd willingly toss her under the campaign bus if it seemed the smart money come November was on Barack Obama.
Labels: Elections
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