Thursday, February 21, 2008
Shifting Political Winds of Change
Elections, resignations, and allegations are playing a big role in reshaping, or potentially reshaping the world this week. Let's take a brief look at whats been going down.
Adios Fidel!
After holding power since 1959, longest lasting pol in existence, Fidel Castro has resigned from his position as Generalissimo Numero Uno in Cuba. He's been replaced by his brother Raul. Don't expect much change. Raul has been slightly opening up some things since he took over de facto leadership of the country over a year ago, but he's in no mood to give up power that easily. The next period politically will probably see some realignment of the junior members of the party that were in limbo while Fidel's status was in question. Most likely expect more economic and market liberalization and the same old, same old when it comes to human rights and participation in government. And why not? As Robert Sheer points out, "Mao Tse-tung is still honored in communist China, the fastest-growing capitalist power in the world, and former KGB agent Vladimir Putin is, at least for now, a very popular elected Russian leader."
Plus when you factor in the irrational US embargo of Cuba over the years, which has oddly had the effect of making Cuba more self-reliant than almost any nation on the planet, you realize that any further development there will be coming from Canadian, European, and Chinese investment. It'll be fun to watch how long US big business will let the fanatical voting bloc of anti-Castro Cubans in swing state Florida continue to force, or in the case of TeamBush even strengthen, the GOP to toe the embargo line. They want a chance at that pie real bad.
Pushed out Pervez
Now that he lost a disasterous election, will (former general) Musharraf get pushed out of the political scene in Pakistan? You know, 'nuclear-armed' Pakistan. It clearly didn't help that he was Our man in Havana, um sorry Fidel, Islamabad, these last few years. He became untrusted by the US for not doing enough to curb radical islamic insurgents, while being similarly reviled at home for kow-towing too much to US demands to pressure radical islamic insurgents. The dude just couldn't win for tryin'. BBC reports today a meeting of the two winning parties in the Parliamentary contest to try and form a coalition government--the question is if Musharraf's ouster will be part of the eventual deal?
There is some good news: secularists won decisively in the tribal regions made up of ethnic Pashtuns. There are signs of 'Mullah fatigue', which could really be useful not only for long-suffering Pashtuns on the Afghan border, but for a new US president who can come in with a
less 'cowboy diplomacy' attitude (e.g. not McCain). Regardless, the person to watch here is Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, former Chief Justice of Pakistan's High Court who was deposed by Musharraf and is still under house arrest. Speaking to supporters from a cell phone smuggled into his home after the elections he said, "There are occasions when a nation passes through defining moments and the Pakistani nation is passing through this defining moment now. If we lose this opportunity no one can then change the affairs of this nation ever." How funny will it be, at least by US standards, if the lawyers in a nation start a revolution?! I mean y'know, a positive one.
McCain's skeletal closet
Big John is facing his first crisis scrutiny of the election. NYT reports of a sex scandal that happened in 2000 between McCain (like his MILF wife isn't enough for the geezer pervert?) and a female lobbyist with whom he had work-related business. The better backstory is how much the current McCain staff 'went to the mattresses' (quoting Josh Marshall at TPM) to keep this at bay. . . it's been waiting to be published since December, meaning it was likely compiled even earlier, but the McCain boys forced everyone to lawyer up and hash out the story line-by-line. The result was something that looked very-well vetted. Still, the Washington Post followed up with a similar story, leaving Marshall to believe that :
Obama-nation?
With his 10th victory in a row momentum continues for Obama's campaign. There is further dissonance in Clintonland, where strategists are divided on how best to confront him in media and an upcoming crucial debate in Austin. {former Austinite comment--I've got to think that it's pretty hostile territory for Hillary; Dallas or Houston would've worked better for her, at least in terms of the sometimes-crucial audience response.} Even still, the numbers might not be there for her overall. Even if Clinton wins in both Ohio and Texas, she must do so decisively, and as go further contests, consistently. In order to end up with a voted delegate count (e.g. not the now-vilified Superdelegates), she must by the last primaries be pulling something on the order of 60-70% of the vote to nullify Obama's advantage. Other than that she is left with legal-yet-scuzzy convention manuvering that will, according to a number of pundits and casual observers, decimate the democratic party and destory its chances of capturing the White House in November. Even all but the most ardent Hillary supporter doesn't want to see that scenario in play come the general election. Prediction: Hillary's done, even though the chefs in charge of her campaign want to keep her in the oven a while longer to see what happens. Come March 5th I expect her built-in-timer to visibly pop.
Elections, resignations, and allegations are playing a big role in reshaping, or potentially reshaping the world this week. Let's take a brief look at whats been going down.
Adios Fidel!
After holding power since 1959, longest lasting pol in existence, Fidel Castro has resigned from his position as Generalissimo Numero Uno in Cuba. He's been replaced by his brother Raul. Don't expect much change. Raul has been slightly opening up some things since he took over de facto leadership of the country over a year ago, but he's in no mood to give up power that easily. The next period politically will probably see some realignment of the junior members of the party that were in limbo while Fidel's status was in question. Most likely expect more economic and market liberalization and the same old, same old when it comes to human rights and participation in government. And why not? As Robert Sheer points out, "Mao Tse-tung is still honored in communist China, the fastest-growing capitalist power in the world, and former KGB agent Vladimir Putin is, at least for now, a very popular elected Russian leader."
Plus when you factor in the irrational US embargo of Cuba over the years, which has oddly had the effect of making Cuba more self-reliant than almost any nation on the planet, you realize that any further development there will be coming from Canadian, European, and Chinese investment. It'll be fun to watch how long US big business will let the fanatical voting bloc of anti-Castro Cubans in swing state Florida continue to force, or in the case of TeamBush even strengthen, the GOP to toe the embargo line. They want a chance at that pie real bad.
Pushed out Pervez
Now that he lost a disasterous election, will (former general) Musharraf get pushed out of the political scene in Pakistan? You know, 'nuclear-armed' Pakistan. It clearly didn't help that he was Our man in Havana, um sorry Fidel, Islamabad, these last few years. He became untrusted by the US for not doing enough to curb radical islamic insurgents, while being similarly reviled at home for kow-towing too much to US demands to pressure radical islamic insurgents. The dude just couldn't win for tryin'. BBC reports today a meeting of the two winning parties in the Parliamentary contest to try and form a coalition government--the question is if Musharraf's ouster will be part of the eventual deal?
There is some good news: secularists won decisively in the tribal regions made up of ethnic Pashtuns. There are signs of 'Mullah fatigue', which could really be useful not only for long-suffering Pashtuns on the Afghan border, but for a new US president who can come in with a
less 'cowboy diplomacy' attitude (e.g. not McCain). Regardless, the person to watch here is Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, former Chief Justice of Pakistan's High Court who was deposed by Musharraf and is still under house arrest. Speaking to supporters from a cell phone smuggled into his home after the elections he said, "There are occasions when a nation passes through defining moments and the Pakistani nation is passing through this defining moment now. If we lose this opportunity no one can then change the affairs of this nation ever." How funny will it be, at least by US standards, if the lawyers in a nation start a revolution?! I mean y'know, a positive one.
McCain's skeletal closet
Big John is facing his first crisis scrutiny of the election. NYT reports of a sex scandal that happened in 2000 between McCain (like his MILF wife isn't enough for the geezer pervert?) and a female lobbyist with whom he had work-related business. The better backstory is how much the current McCain staff 'went to the mattresses' (quoting Josh Marshall at TPM) to keep this at bay. . . it's been waiting to be published since December, meaning it was likely compiled even earlier, but the McCain boys forced everyone to lawyer up and hash out the story line-by-line. The result was something that looked very-well vetted. Still, the Washington Post followed up with a similar story, leaving Marshall to believe that :
Reading all of this stuff I have the distinct feeling that only a few pieces of
the puzzle are now on the table. Given unspoken understandings of many years'
duration, a lot of reporters and DC types can probably imagine what the full
picture looks like. But we're going to need a few more pieces before the rest of
us can get a sense of what this is all about.
Obama-nation?
With his 10th victory in a row momentum continues for Obama's campaign. There is further dissonance in Clintonland, where strategists are divided on how best to confront him in media and an upcoming crucial debate in Austin. {former Austinite comment--I've got to think that it's pretty hostile territory for Hillary; Dallas or Houston would've worked better for her, at least in terms of the sometimes-crucial audience response.} Even still, the numbers might not be there for her overall. Even if Clinton wins in both Ohio and Texas, she must do so decisively, and as go further contests, consistently. In order to end up with a voted delegate count (e.g. not the now-vilified Superdelegates), she must by the last primaries be pulling something on the order of 60-70% of the vote to nullify Obama's advantage. Other than that she is left with legal-yet-scuzzy convention manuvering that will, according to a number of pundits and casual observers, decimate the democratic party and destory its chances of capturing the White House in November. Even all but the most ardent Hillary supporter doesn't want to see that scenario in play come the general election. Prediction: Hillary's done, even though the chefs in charge of her campaign want to keep her in the oven a while longer to see what happens. Come March 5th I expect her built-in-timer to visibly pop.
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